I often wonder about that too. In every darn Canadian election, the CBC says something like, "Yes, with five percent of the votes in, we've calculated that Paul Martin wins. Thanks for watching, and good night." WTF? They never have to take it back, though, so I guess they know what they're talking about.

I don't want to work out tonight either.

::goes anyway::

Yeah, no shit. Here on the West Coast the outcome has usually already been decided even before our polling stations close. they actually changed the polling hours from the traditional 8 am - 8 pm to 7 am - 7 pm at this election, because the TV results from back East start trickling in around about 6:30 pm Pacific time. I guess they figured if there was only a half hour window rather than a ninety minute window, people here would feel more like their vote counted. I mean, unless they live right next to the polling place, even the last-minuters have usually already left to go to the polls by half an hour before closing.

And they(1) wonder what causes West Coast alienation. *snerk* It is seriously annoying when, say, Mr. Mansbridge or Mr. Robertson call the results and I've just barely walked out of the polling station.

(1) "they" in this case meaning "people who have lived most of their lives East of Kenora, ON." Um. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

I think it depends on how those six million are distributed amongst the states and thus translate into electoral votes. Statistically, for example, it was impossible for the number of provisional and absentee ballots distributed in Ohio to help Kerry overcome Bush's advantage there.

Or so I've managed to understand, with my small brain for math. I think I'm gonna go doublecheck on all of this...

Yeah, this seems to be the way I'm understanding it, too. It still makes my brain hurt, but there you go. The 5-6 million estimated are way spread out, not concentrated enough in any one state to manage to dent Bush's electoral total or boost Kerry's. The number of provisional ballots in Ohio, for example, meant that in order to win Ohio, 90% of the ballots would have to be valid, and then 90% of those would have to be for Kerry.

Further, statistically, it's unlikely that enough of the 5-6 million uncounted would be for Kerry, to make up the 4 million by which he trails Bush in the popular vote. Of those 6 million, 5.5 million would have to be for Kerry for it to push him ahead -- a percentage that he hasn't enjoyed in the election as a whole, so far, so it makes it seem too unlikely.

But even then, if they managed to squeak him past Bush in the popular vote total -- that just gives you 2000 over again, with one guy winning the popular vote but the other guy winning the electoral vote and, by law, the election. One might hope that such a thing happening twice in a row would cause the courts to consider setting aside the electoral result -- but that was a precedent they were hugely unwilling to set the last time, and it would be controversial for them to decide to do so in this case, especially against an incumbent.

All heart-breaking, still. I wish he had waited to concede at least until all those votes were counted, nevermind all the litigation. But, it was probably the correct guess on his part, regarding the outcome.

Me, I'm chewing my fingers off over the Christine v Dino race, and wondering how anyone could be making any statements at all when there were as many provisional ballots in people's hands as regular ones, as we stood in line to vote in a Methodist Church in Lacey.

I try not to think that they're making it all up but some days I feel as if I'm living in the margin of error.

Julia, yes, today is one.

"I'm starting to see some progress" - excellent news.
Keep up the good work, its worth it.
You will triumph!