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03 November 2004 @ 05:06 pm
I've been working busily, focused. Not much to say. Went to bed gloomy, woke up the same. But I just saw this AP wire article and was confused:
Nov. 3, 2004 | Washington -- Driven by an intense race for the presidency, a greater percentage of Americans voted Tuesday than at any time in more than three decades.

Figures tabulated Wednesday by The Associated Press showed that 114.3 million people had voted with 99 percent of precincts reporting. However, about 120 million people cast ballots, including 5.5 million to 6 million absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted, said Curtis Gans, director of the nonpartisan Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.
If we haven't counted 6 million votes, how do we know who won? Is the game over because everyone's pretty certain that those absentee ballots are from servicepeople and therefore likely for Bush? Just wondering.

I'm very tired, leftovers from yesterday, which was a long day; up until I got off the bus and found the polling place, I wasn't sure I'd get it together enough to vote. But I did, my first vote ever. I don't want to work out tonight, I do want to veg, but after a rough several weeks of prescription misery and weight plateauing I'm starting to see some progress, so off I go.
Current Mood: tired, sleepy, drowsy, dozy
Poshykittyposhcat on November 3rd, 2004 05:58 pm (UTC)
I often wonder about that too. In every darn Canadian election, the CBC says something like, "Yes, with five percent of the votes in, we've calculated that Paul Martin wins. Thanks for watching, and good night." WTF? They never have to take it back, though, so I guess they know what they're talking about.

I don't want to work out tonight either.

::goes anyway::
Mayhem Parvaraincitygirl on November 3rd, 2004 07:09 pm (UTC)
Yeah, no shit. Here on the West Coast the outcome has usually already been decided even before our polling stations close. they actually changed the polling hours from the traditional 8 am - 8 pm to 7 am - 7 pm at this election, because the TV results from back East start trickling in around about 6:30 pm Pacific time. I guess they figured if there was only a half hour window rather than a ninety minute window, people here would feel more like their vote counted. I mean, unless they live right next to the polling place, even the last-minuters have usually already left to go to the polls by half an hour before closing.
inappropriately bibliophilicraucousraven on November 3rd, 2004 10:52 pm (UTC)
And they(1) wonder what causes West Coast alienation. *snerk* It is seriously annoying when, say, Mr. Mansbridge or Mr. Robertson call the results and I've just barely walked out of the polling station.

(1) "they" in this case meaning "people who have lived most of their lives East of Kenora, ON." Um. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
all work and no playhesychasm on November 3rd, 2004 06:00 pm (UTC)
I think it depends on how those six million are distributed amongst the states and thus translate into electoral votes. Statistically, for example, it was impossible for the number of provisional and absentee ballots distributed in Ohio to help Kerry overcome Bush's advantage there.

Or so I've managed to understand, with my small brain for math. I think I'm gonna go doublecheck on all of this...
eregyrneregyrn on November 3rd, 2004 08:11 pm (UTC)
Yeah, this seems to be the way I'm understanding it, too. It still makes my brain hurt, but there you go. The 5-6 million estimated are way spread out, not concentrated enough in any one state to manage to dent Bush's electoral total or boost Kerry's. The number of provisional ballots in Ohio, for example, meant that in order to win Ohio, 90% of the ballots would have to be valid, and then 90% of those would have to be for Kerry.

Further, statistically, it's unlikely that enough of the 5-6 million uncounted would be for Kerry, to make up the 4 million by which he trails Bush in the popular vote. Of those 6 million, 5.5 million would have to be for Kerry for it to push him ahead -- a percentage that he hasn't enjoyed in the election as a whole, so far, so it makes it seem too unlikely.

But even then, if they managed to squeak him past Bush in the popular vote total -- that just gives you 2000 over again, with one guy winning the popular vote but the other guy winning the electoral vote and, by law, the election. One might hope that such a thing happening twice in a row would cause the courts to consider setting aside the electoral result -- but that was a precedent they were hugely unwilling to set the last time, and it would be controversial for them to decide to do so in this case, especially against an incumbent.

All heart-breaking, still. I wish he had waited to concede at least until all those votes were counted, nevermind all the litigation. But, it was probably the correct guess on his part, regarding the outcome.
julia_herejulia_here on November 3rd, 2004 09:09 pm (UTC)
Me, I'm chewing my fingers off over the Christine v Dino race, and wondering how anyone could be making any statements at all when there were as many provisional ballots in people's hands as regular ones, as we stood in line to vote in a Methodist Church in Lacey.

I try not to think that they're making it all up but some days I feel as if I'm living in the margin of error.

Julia, yes, today is one.
Trepkostrepkos on November 4th, 2004 02:28 am (UTC)
"I'm starting to see some progress" - excellent news.
Keep up the good work, its worth it.
You will triumph!